Chamonix weather forecast snow report from Henry's Avalanche Talk

Snow Report & Vid Update Feb 28

Snow report Feb 28, 2008

There are times when a guy will take anything he can get and now is one of those times for me. Any dusting of snow,… any bits of soft white patches bring joy to my heart these days. It might not be huge dumps or even small dumps yet (although I’m somewhat hopeful for Monday and Tuesday), but it’s something and that is a good thing!

I guess the chance of real snow next week helps my optimism too. And the fact that the snowpack is really stable helps a lot. But Just a reminder for when we really do get more snow: last week and the week before I mentioned a concern I have for the next significant snowfall. This concern is still valid: it is the return and continued build-up of angular crystals, ‘frisette’ and depth hoar on flat and shaded slopes above 2500 due to the cold temps two weeks ago and before (the recent warm temps have not altered their shape, form or existence). The renewed growth of angular grains and depth hoar is not a problem now; in fact it has made for some very nice skiing in some places! But, with the next significant snowfalls (total 30 to 40cm or more in one place), it will be a source of instability under the new snow on shaded slopes that were not subjected to much skier compaction. So that really means in places that were not ‘pisted off-piste’ and more on north-facing/shaded slopes (where most avalanche accidents take place) that have not been skied very much. I have been out off-piste and touring in the last few days - there is definitely a lot of unconsolidated snow around on the types of slopes I just mentioned. It’s starting to make up the whole snowpack in some places.

Tip of the week: If we do get a lot of snow at some point over the next week then watch out for the ‘powder frenzy’. That happens when we haven’t had snow for a while and when it finally comes, we go crazy. Off-piste isn’t dangerous unless you do something foolish and there’s no better scenario for foolish off-piste than when you and you’re your mates go nuts and create a powder frenzy. Take it from someone who has been foolish more than once and been lucky.

‘Ride Hard Ride Safe’!

Henry

PS For more info on snow conditions, courses and updates: see henrysavalanchetalk.com and if you sign up for our e-zine, you will get this snow report by email on Thursday with a whole lot of other useful stuff too.

Avalanche bulletin and weather forecast Haute Savoie

This avalanche translation of the Meteo France avalanche bulletin is produced mainly through an automated translation tool.  Please use it in conjunction with the French bulletin found at the above link.

N74270211
BULLETIN FOR ESTIMATING THE RISK OF AVALANCHES
FOR HAUTE SAVOIE
Valid off marked and open trails
FOR THURSDAY 28 FEBRUARY 2008
(Drafted Wednesday, February 27)

ESTIMATE OF RISK UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING:
All massive Haute-Savoie:
Limited risk (level 2).

WEATHER OVERVIEW UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING:
The next night, and Thursday, the sky will be shrouded by high clouds between 5000/3000 m, but the sun filter more or less Thursday through the cloud layer, in a fresh atmosphere.

Isothermal 0 2200 m.
Wind at 2000 m: Southwest 10/20 km / h.
Wind at 4000 m: West to northwest 40/60 km / h.

SNOW CONDITIONS:
The snow depths are low for the end of February, especially in the southern slopes and at low altitudes.
Snow resists better in the north. Glaciers are in relatively good condition but their loss in thickness is clearly visible on the ground.
It is fitting the skis from 1100 m in sectors cold due north.
In southern slopes, ... Between 1600 and 1900 m depending on the slope steepness.

Quality of snow Thursday:
Unless 2000/2200 m in all slopes, except for a thin crust subjected surface in the morning, wet snow will be much of the day.

A more 2000/2200 m north side, is a small layer of snow recently powder in the order of 10 cm on the surface of the mantle. In southern side between 2000 and 2700 m, this small layer of snow over recent hours humidifies itself.

STABILITY OF SNOW COVER:
ALWAYS NATURAL HAZARDS OF LOCALIZED HUMIDIFICATION DUE TO THE MOUNTAINS ON AVERAGE SLABS AND SOME OF SURFACE AT ALTITUDE.

Indeed, in some fields not purged steep mountains on average, bottom slabs of wet snow/heavy triggering is still naturally at any time of night/day, especially on grassy soil or rock slabs. This risk will be located below 2000/2200 m in the steep slopes to the north, 2500 m in the steep slopes to the south. These wet snow, bottom slab avalanches, heavy, not very fast, can still generate a large deposit down, especially if they are channeled in a corridor (... filing with large blocks very hard). In addition, small cast surface, mobilizing only small layer of snow deposited over 1800/2000 m, will trigger spontaneously in steep in the sun, including sometimes in high mountain slopes in the mixed (snow / rock ).

Above 2000/2500 m depending on the orientation, the snowpack will remain quite stable although some scattered patches remain superficial, especially in the cold slopes (small hard slabs, or friable powder depending on location).

TREND LATER RISK:
On Friday and Saturday, stationary risk (moderate rainfall with a maximum of snowfall to 1600 m).

Meteo-France updates this newsletter everyday at 16h or sooner if conditions warrant.

Forecast for Weds 27 Feb

AVALANCHE BULLETIN
of HAUTE-SAVOIE
VALID OUTSIDE OF MARKED AND OPEN SKI RUNS
FOR WEDNESDAY 27 FEBRUARY 2008
(written Tuesday, February 26)

RISK ASSESSMENT UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING:
All ranges Haute-Savoie:
MODERATE RISK (level 2).

WEATHER OUTLOOK UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING:
In the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, while rain arroseront small valleys, snow will deposit on the peaks above 1800 meters (10 cm of snow around 2000 m)

Wednesday morning, the clouds, mostly concentrated in mid elevations between 1300 and 2000 m, tear in the morning to glimpse moments of sunshine. Mostly sunny in the morning in high elevations. The afternoon will be rather cloudy and mild.

Isotherm 0 DG: 2200 m and 2000 m.
Wind at 2000 m: Southwest 20/30 km / h.
Wind at 4000 m: southwest to west 10/20 km / h.

SNOW CONDITIONS:
The snow is low for the end of February, especially in the southern slopes and at low altitudes.
Snow resists better in the north. Glaciers are in relatively good condition but their loss in thickness is clearly visible on the ground.
Can be put on the skis from 1100 m in sectors cold due north.
In southern slopes, .. . Between 1600 and 1900 m depending on the slope steepness.

Quality of snow Wednesday:
Less than 1800 m, wet snow will remain throughout the day. In the sunny slopes Wednesday afternoon, humidification will spread until at least 2500 m. A

over 1800/2000 m in the morning, there is a small layer of fresh snow s'humidifiant afternoon in the hills to the sun.

STABILITY OF THE SNOWPACK:
ALWAYS NATURAL HAZARDS OF LOCALIZED DUE TO HUMIDIFICATION IN mid elevations.

Indeed, on some steep terrain in mid elevations not purged, bottom slabs of wet snow / Heavy is still naturally trigger at any time of night / day, especially on grassy soil or rock slabs. This risk will be located below 2000 m in the steep slopes to the north, 2500 m in the steep slopes to the south. These avalanches deep slab of wet snow / heavy, not very fast, can still generate a large deposit down, especially if they are channeled in a corridor (... filing with large blocks very hard). In addition, small slides surface, mobilizing only small layer of fresh snow will trigger spontaneously in steep in the sun, including sometimes high elevations in downhill mixed (snow / rock).

Above 2000/2500 m depending on the orientation, the snowpack will remain quite stable although some superficial plaques remain scattered here and there, especially in the cold slopes with the approach of Passes and ridges.

TENDANCE LATER RISK:
Thursday, refreeze good in the morning and low risk of avalanche. In the afternoon, and resumed activity of a small avalanche in the steep non served in the sun.

Meteo France updates this newsletter every day to 16h or sooner if conditions warrant nivométéorologiques.

1992-2008 All text and images copyright: pistehors.com;

Avalanche bulletin and weather forecast Haute Savoie

This avalanche translation of the Meteo France avalanche bulletin is produced mainly through an automated translation tool.  Please use it in conjunction with the French bulletin found at the above link.

N74190211
BULLETIN FOR ESTIMATING THE RISK OF AVALANCHES
FOR HAUTE SAVOIE
Valid off marked and open trails
FOR WEDNESDAY 20 FEBRUARY 2008
(Drafted Tuesday, February 19)

ESTIMATE OF RISK UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING:
All massive Haute-Savoie: Low risk (level 1).

OVERVIEW WEATHER UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING:
Skies become increasingly cloudy in the day Wednesday.

Isothermal 0 1800 m.
Wind at 2000 m: Southwest, 20 to 40 km / h.
Wind at 4000 m: South-west then west 20 to 30 km / h.

SNOW CONDITIONS:
The snow is a little low but largely correct for a mid-February, it is mainly in the southern slopes that the deficit is well marked. It is therefore fitting the skis 1000 m in the cold and shady valleys, circa 1400 to 1700 m in the South.

Quality of snow on Wednesday:
Versants South: The snow will last until about 3000 m. The thaw will concern only the low altitude because of the sunshine disrupted by clouds.
Versants North: After almost two weeks of fine weather, all rides and off-road tracks are very classic. In sectors remained poorly attended, there is a snow crust at low altitude or in the sunny slopes moderately, while in the colder snow is usually a powder dense. The windy places often have a hard snow or ice.

STABILITY OF SNOW COVER:
Coat well snowy stable, except for a few departures slabs of substance.

The probability of a slab avalanche, even with the passage of a group of people, remain low. But we can not totally ignore this risk, especially in the steep and routes where snow has remained "cold".

On the other hand, rare spontaneous avalanches are possible (but less likely these days): These potential avalanches, carrying snow to the ground, are usually small and can be activated on some steep slopes of average Mountain oriented more or less in the South, even in the West, particularly in the event of grassy ground or rock slabs.

TREND LATER RISK:
Thursday and Friday, the risk to remain unchanged.

Meteo-France updates this newsletter everyday at 16h or sooner if conditions warrant.

Avalanche bulletin and weather forecast Haute Savoie

This avalanche translation of the Meteo France avalanche bulletin is produced mainly through an automated translation tool.  Please use it in conjunction with the French bulletin found at the above link.

N74130211
BULLETIN FOR ESTIMATING THE RISK OF AVALANCHES
FOR HAUTE SAVOIE
Valid off marked and open trails
FOR THURSDAY 14 FEBRUARY 2008
(Drafted Wednesday, February 13)

ESTIMATE OF RISK UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING:
All massive Haute-Savoie: Low risk (level 1) that evolves limited risk (level 2).

WEATHER OVERVIEW UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING:
Good weather.

Isothermal 0 DG: 2100 m with cold air in the morning in the valley bottoms.
Isothermal -10 DG: 3700 m.
Wind at 2000 m: Slow.
Wind at 4000 m: Slow.

SNOW CONDITIONS:
The snow is a little low for a mid-February but still largely correct: You can put on skis as soon as 1000 m in the north, 1300 to 1600 m in the south. A 1500 m north side, there are on average 60 to 80 cm of snow. In the high mountains, snow is intermittent after strong winds of last week.

Quality of snow Thursday:
South Versants: Snow regelée well in the morning, then softening locally crusty surface until about 2500 m in the exposed slopes.
Versants North: Snow crust below 1800 m, changing at higher altitudes (powdery dense in areas usually little windy, hard cardboard or elsewhere).

STABILITY OF SNOW COVER:
Very rare cold slabs sector, rare spontaneous avalanches in hot sectors.

After a week of sunny and windy few days, the snowpack is well stabilized as a whole.

In northern slopes:
The risk of a slab avalanche by a skier or a group of skiers will be very localised, but probably still present in very few well steep slopes remained cold, so higher than 2000 meters.

In southern slope:
After an early day stable with a good regel, warming due to the sun may cause an average mountain, rare spontaneous avalanches of wet snow, until about 2700 m altitude approximately. These rare avalanches are usually small in size but an avalanche slightly more voluminous remain possible, including below cliffs if the soil is made up of slabs of rock.

TREND LATER RISK:
From Thursday to Sunday, the risk is stationary or slightly decreasing.

Meteo-France updates this newsletter everyday at 16h or sooner if conditions warrant.

Avalanche bulletin and weather forecast Haute Savoie

This avalanche translation of the Meteo France avalanche bulletin is produced mainly through an automated translation tool.  Please use it in conjunction with the French bulletin found at the above link.


N74080211
SNOW AND AVALANCHE BULLETIN FOR HAUTE SAVOIE
(VALID OUT OF OPEN AND MARKED RUNS)
PREPARED ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 8
FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 9

ESTIMATE OF RISK UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING:
All massive Haute-Savoie:
Above that 1800/2000 m: limited risk (level 2).
More low as 1800/2000 m: low risk (level 1) that evolves limited risk (level 2).

WEATHER OVERVIEW UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING:
Dry weather and sunny. Temperature at 2000 m: 0 to +3 GD.
Isothermal 0 2800 m.
Wind at 2000 m: North-East 15/30 kph, locally 40 km / h on Northeast Chablais.
Wind at 4000 m: North-east 50 km / h.

SNOW CONDITIONS:
Correct for early February. Irregularities formed by the strong winds.
Thickness total to 1500 m: 10/30 cm in South 80/100 cm in the North.
Quality of snow on Saturday:
South slopes: re-freeze in the morning and then softening the surface until about 2800 m, sometimes crusty.
North Slopes: crusty below 2000 m, powdery earlier in the sheltered areas of Bise, cardboard / blown in the high mountains.

STABILITY OF SNOW COVER:
Becoming stable, but some slabs persist.

Three snowfall occurred over the past week (Saturday, Monday and Wednesday). The wind blew strong (Fœhn then South West and then North).

Versants shady: Wind slabs are formed for a few days, their stabilization is a bit slow in north-east direction at Northwest. It is likely to meet over 2000 m, especially towards the peaks but also in the midst of many slopes in the shade under the rounded or convex areas. Better to keep the distances, in fact some plates could bear the weight of a hiker but yield to the passage of a group.

Versants sunny: in mid-day and afternoon, surface flows occur in the steep slopes until about 2400 m (2700 m even in corridors or steep well as rock bars). Some departures slabs substantive possible in the steep grassy South West in the afternoon on average mountain.

TREND FOR SUNDAY:
Risk stationary or slightly decreasing.

Meteo-France updates this newsletter everyday at 16h or sooner if conditions warrant.

Avalanche bulletin and weather forecast Haute Savoie

This avalanche translation of the Meteo France avalanche bulletin is produced mainly through an automated translation tool.  Please use it in conjunction with the French bulletin found at the above link.

N74050211
SNOW AND AVALANCHE BULLETIN FOR HAUTE SAVOIE
(VALID OFF OF OPEN AND MARKED RUNS)
PREPARED ON TUESDAY FEBRUARY 5
FOR WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 6

ESTIMATE OF RISK UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING:
All massive Haute-Savoie:
Higher than 1800/2000 m: marked risk (level 3)
Lower than 1800/2000 m: limited risk (level 2)

WEATHER OVERVIEW UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING:
Cloudy well on the whole, windy at night. Small snowfall above 1500 /
1700 m, 5 / 10 cm to 2000 m. Temperature to 1500 m between 1 and 3 dg.

Isothermal 0 2100 1600 m.
Isothermal -10 DG: 3800 and 3000 m.
Wind at 2000 m: tonight Southwest turbulent 40/60 then 20 km / h, west Wednesday 50 kph weakening.
Wind at 4000 m: West that night 70 km / h, Wednesday west / northwest 80/100 km / h.

SNOW CONDITIONS:
Correct for early February but thicknesses irregular aloft.
On average around 1500 m: 20/50 cm in South 80/100 cm in the North.
Quality of snow Wednesday: an average of mountains, often a powdery snow, a bit heavy still until 1800/2000 m and exposed parts full wind in hard snow covered shortly.
In the high mountains, snow cardboard, rarely duster.

STABILITY OF SNOW COVER:
Fragile stacks
Since the end of last week, several episodes of snow and wind (especially Sunday (south/Foehn violent) have created superficial layers often unhealthy. And the weather conditions are expected to maintain risk avalanches marked. Zones if full wind and sometimes slopes between south and west, in addition skiées regularly have a lower risk, a great caution, especially above 2000 meters. Slabs can break following the passage of a simple skier on many slopes , the most sensitive are the directions north (even away from the ridges and peaks) convex areas. The thicknesses fairly significant fracture are possible.
As to the risk of natural avalanches, Wednesday, it is expected to remain low and limited to a very local overload resulting in a drain corridor, or even a fracture slab.

TREND LATER RISK:
Risk stationary then falling.
Meteo-France updates this newsletter everyday at 16h or sooner if conditions warrant.

Avalanche bulletin and weather forecast Haute Savoie

This avalanche translation of the Meteo France avalanche bulletin is produced mainly through an automated translation tool.  Please use it in conjunction with the French bulletin found at the above link.

N74050211
SNOW AND AVALANCHE BULLETIN FOR HAUTE SAVOIE
(VALID OFF OF OPEN AND MARKED RUNS)
PREPARED ON TUESDAY FEBRUARY 5
FOR WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 6

ESTIMATE OF RISK UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING:
All massive Haute-Savoie:
Higher than 1800/2000 m: marked risk (level 3)
Lower than 1800/2000 m: limited risk (level 2)

WEATHER OVERVIEW UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING:
Cloudy well on the whole, windy at night. Small snowfall above 1500 /
1700 m, 5 / 10 cm to 2000 m. Temperature to 1500 m between 1 and 3 dg.

Isothermal 0 2100 1600 m.
Isothermal -10 DG: 3800 and 3000 m.
Wind at 2000 m: tonight Southwest turbulent 40/60 then 20 km / h, west Wednesday 50 kph weakening.
Wind at 4000 m: West that night 70 km / h, Wednesday west / northwest 80/100 km / h.

SNOW CONDITIONS:
Correct for early February but thicknesses irregular aloft.
On average around 1500 m: 20/50 cm in South 80/100 cm in the North.
Quality of snow Wednesday: an average of mountains, often a powdery snow, a bit heavy still until 1800/2000 m and exposed parts full wind in hard snow covered shortly.
In the high mountains, snow cardboard, rarely duster.

STABILITY OF SNOW COVER:
Fragile stacks
Since the end of last week, several episodes of snow and wind (especially Sunday (south/Foehn violent) have created superficial layers often unhealthy. And the weather conditions are expected to maintain risk avalanches marked. Zones if full wind and sometimes slopes between south and west, in addition skiées regularly have a lower risk, a great caution, especially above 2000 meters. Slabs can break following the passage of a simple skier on many slopes , the most sensitive are the directions north (even away from the ridges and peaks) convex areas. The thicknesses fairly significant fracture are possible.
As to the risk of natural avalanches, Wednesday, it is expected to remain low and limited to a very local overload resulting in a drain corridor, or even a fracture slab.

TREND LATER RISK:
Risk stationary then falling.
Meteo-France updates this newsletter everyday at 16h or sooner if conditions warrant.

Avalanche bulletin and weather forecast Haute Savoie

This avalanche translation of the Meteo France avalanche bulletin is produced mainly through an automated translation tool.  Please use it in conjunction with the French bulletin found at the above link.

N74040211
SNOW AND AVALANCHE BULLETIN FOR HAUTE SAVOIE
(VALID OUT OF OPEN AND MARKED RUNS)
PREPARED ON MONDAY FEBRUARY 4
FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 5

ESTIMATE OF RISK UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING:

All massive Haute-Savoie: marked risk (level 3).

WEATHER OVERVIEW UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING:
Dry weather Tuesday, quite sunny in the morning, clouds return of the afternoon hanging gradually peaks in the Mont Blanc massif.
Isothermal 0 1200 2000 m.
Isothermal -10 DG: 3600 m.
Wind at 2000 m: Southwest 15/30 km/h, gusting to 40 km/h on Aravis/Chablais in the afternoon.
Wind at 4000 m: West 70 km/h.

SNOW CONDITIONS:
Correct for early February. Conditions are improving.
Thickness 1500 m: 20/50 cm in South 80/100 cm in the North.

Quality of snow Tuesday: you ski on a good layer of snow, cold and light in the morning in mid mountain. Winds from the Southwest blew hard Monday morning at the start of the snowfall. On the peaks, the layer of powder is finer and quickly found the sub-hard layer. In the high mountains, the snow is often more compact, sometimes in cardboard slopes subject to the winds.

STABILITY OF SNOW COVER:

Some fragile slabs and places piégeuses

Likelihood of spontaneous avalanche departures few surface flows in the sun, occasionally rare purges slightly larger in steep oriented towards South 1800/2400 m, especially in the late morning.

The risk of an avalanche:
-- Brittle slabs were formed in the powdery snow, especially in guidance Northwest, North and East. One skier can cause a fracture engaging in the top of a steep slope and / or convex. Beware of the long slopes and fair traveled little in recent times.
-- Slabs formed tougher this weekend by winds from the South and Southwest persist, sometimes disguised as powder. They are mainly found near the ridge behind the edges or big bosses. Around Mont Blanc, Fœhn blew strong and the slabs are probably thicker (about 60 cm), it is better to keep a safe distance off.

TREND FOR WEDNESDAY:
Risk stationary or slightly decreasing.

Meteo-France updates this newsletter everyday at 16h or sooner if conditions warrant.

Avalanche bulletin and weather forecast Haute Savoie

This avalanche translation of the Meteo France avalanche bulletin is produced mainly through an automated translation tool.  Please use it in conjunction with the French bulletin found at the above link.

N74040211
SNOW AND AVALANCHE BULLETIN FOR HAUTE SAVOIE
(VALID OUT OF OPEN AND MARKED RUNS)
PREPARED ON MONDAY FEBRUARY 4
FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 5

ESTIMATE OF RISK UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING:

All massive Haute-Savoie: marked risk (level 3).

WEATHER OVERVIEW UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING:
Dry weather Tuesday, quite sunny in the morning, clouds return of the afternoon hanging gradually peaks in the Mont Blanc massif.
Isothermal 0 1200 2000 m.
Isothermal -10 DG: 3600 m.
Wind at 2000 m: Southwest 15/30 km/h, gusting to 40 km/h on Aravis/Chablais in the afternoon.
Wind at 4000 m: West 70 km/h.

SNOW CONDITIONS:
Correct for early February. Conditions are improving.
Thickness 1500 m: 20/50 cm in South 80/100 cm in the North.

Quality of snow Tuesday: you ski on a good layer of snow, cold and light in the morning in mid mountain. Winds from the Southwest blew hard Monday morning at the start of the snowfall. On the peaks, the layer of powder is finer and quickly found the sub-hard layer. In the high mountains, the snow is often more compact, sometimes in cardboard slopes subject to the winds.

STABILITY OF SNOW COVER:

Some fragile slabs and places piégeuses

Likelihood of spontaneous avalanche departures few surface flows in the sun, occasionally rare purges slightly larger in steep oriented towards South 1800/2400 m, especially in the late morning.

The risk of an avalanche:
-- Brittle slabs were formed in the powdery snow, especially in guidance Northwest, North and East. One skier can cause a fracture engaging in the top of a steep slope and / or convex. Beware of the long slopes and fair traveled little in recent times.
-- Slabs formed tougher this weekend by winds from the South and Southwest persist, sometimes disguised as powder. They are mainly found near the ridge behind the edges or big bosses. Around Mont Blanc, Fœhn blew strong and the slabs are probably thicker (about 60 cm), it is better to keep a safe distance off.

TREND FOR WEDNESDAY:
Risk stationary or slightly decreasing.

Meteo-France updates this newsletter everyday at 16h or sooner if conditions warrant.